Border intrigue, or was it?

A messy refugee situation just inside the south – western side of China’s border with Myanmar appears to have been averted. It was bad enough that Myanmar ethnic rebels of the Kokang Alliance were streaming across into Chinese sanctuary after being routed by Myanmar troops in border security operations. Much worse was that Chinese cross – border traders long domiciled in Myanmar, as well as Myanmar civilians, formed the bulk of a refugee flow that reached 40,000 in number, according to Chinese border officials and the United Nations refugee agency. Many rebel fighters as well as Chinese business people fearful that their assets would be looted have been returning in an orderly fashion. But thousands more are still in China in temporary shelter, where they are cared for while awaiting repatriation. The junta reportedly has apologized for causing the disturbance, after Beijing made low-key representations.

This was entirely a Myanmar affair. It was part of a longstanding campaign, despite ceasefire deals, to secure the border fringes controlled by Karen, Kachin, Wa and Kokang militias. It was part of a security sweep made ahead of next year’s scheduled parliamentary elections. The junta’s plan was to make an auxiliary border guard of rehabilitated rebels. But what turned the strike against the Kokang insurgents into a delicate issue was the unforeseen flight of refugees. The consequences would have been unimaginable if hot pursuit of rebels had crossed frontiers, or violence had spilled over into Chinese territory. The Chinese had apparently not been notified of the strike in advance, an unusual lapse in the conduct of relations between the two nations.

This did not look like Myanmar deliberately testing China’s goodwill by ordering a strike at a rebel location right next to its neighbor’s backyard. Some observers see a pattern in recent events. They have speculated that the reception the junta gave an American congressman, Mr. Jim Webb, was for Beijing’s consumption, meaning Myanmar was signaling it had “options” besides relying on China for support and cover. It is not fruitful trying to figure out the Yangon generals’ calculations. Making an American connection, whatever it may be, seems a stretch. It is easier to make out, in China’s mainly calm reaction over the border issue, the truth of where its strategic interest in Myanmar relations lies. This is the energy supply from all over that will traverse Myanmar territory via pipeline, bypassing the Malacca Strait, and the probability of having a military perch that looks out over the Indian Ocean. For these privileges, China conceivably would stomach worse than a flight of refugees.

[Source: Straits Times]

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